【專家之眼】解讀北京新德里關係回溫信號

1月18日印度外交部長蘇傑生(Subrahmanyam Jaishankar)受邀至孟買納尼•帕吉瓦拉紀念演講會(Nani Palkhivala Memorial Lecture)以「印度與世界」(India and the World)為題，針對印度未來外交政策展望發表演講。

由於帕吉瓦拉為印度著名司法界人士，亦曾經代表印度出使過美國，在印度政壇具有崇高聲望。在2022年12月辭世後，印度政治界與經濟圈就每年在其生日前後，在孟買舉辦系列性納尼•帕吉瓦拉紀念演講會，作為傳送與表述印度重要政策發展前景平台。

由於孟買為印度經濟活動中心，其與新德里間之關係，猶如上海之於北京，因此誠如蘇傑生在當日演講中所提：“Before I get in to my remarks, let me also underline that my first significant foreign policy address at home in 2025 is taking place outside New Delhi. This reflects our recognition that the stakeholders now extend well beyond the capital and its officialdom. And in fact, messaging from Mumbai serves to emphasize the economic dimensions of our diplomacy. I am sure that Nani Palkhivala would appreciate these shifts in our thinking over the last decade.”。因此蘇傑生演講確實是在陳述過去十年印度外交政策受到經濟情勢影響所產生變化，因此在解讀這篇演講內容時，經濟要素確實必須牢記在心。

北京與印度關係確實正在解凍回溫，在去年10月金磚國家喀山峰會前，雙方就邊界緊張情勢達成協議，並且相互向後撤出邊防部隊，讓原本對峙狀態明顯改善。隨後中國大陸國家主席習近平與印度總理莫迪在峰會期間順勢會晤對話，雙方關係回溫狀況相當明顯。

中國大陸解讀蘇傑生18日演講內容，都聚焦於演講第14段，專門陳述對中國大陸政策調整內容：“At a time when most of its relationships are moving forward, India confronts a particular challenge in establishing an equilibrium with China. Much of that arises from the fact that both nations are on the rise. As immediate neighbours and the only two societies with over a billion people, their dynamic could never have been easy. But it has been further sharpened by a boundary dispute, by some baggage of history and by differing socio-political systems. Misreadings by past policy-makers, whether driven by idealism or absence of realpolitik, has actually helped neither cooperation nor competition with China. That has clearly changed in the last decade. Right now, the relationship is trying to disentangle itself from the complications arising from the post-2020 border situation. Even as that is being addressed, more thought needs to be given to the longer-term evolution of ties. Clearly, India has to prepare for expressions of China’s growing capabilities, particularly those that impinge directly on our interests. To hold up its own end, a more rapid development of India’s comprehensive national power is necessary. This is not just about correcting the earlier neglect of the border infrastructure and oceanic periphery, but also in mitigating dependence in sensitive domains. There could naturally be practical cooperation, undertaken with due diligence. All in all, India’s approach can be summed up in terms of the three mutuals, i.e., mutual respect, mutual sensitivity and mutual interests. Bilateral ties can also benefit from a greater realization that what is at stake is actually the larger prospects of both nations and, in fact, even of the global order. It needs an acceptance that the emergence of a multi-polar Asia is an essential pre-requisite for a multi-polar world.”(演講全文請參見印度外交部官網：Remarks by External Affairs Minister, Dr. S Jaishankar at Nani Palkhivala Memorial Lecture ‘India and the World’ January 18, 2025；https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/38925/Remarks+by+External+Affairs+Minister+Dr+S+Jaishankar+at+Nani+Palkhivala+Memorial+Lecture+India+and+the+World)

北京方面刻意安排在1月21日中國大陸外交部記者會，由直屬中共中央宣傳部中央廣播電視總臺中文國際頻道記者率先提問：「據報導，18日，印度外長蘇傑生發表講話稱，印中關係關乎兩國發展前景和全球秩序。印將在相互尊重、相互敏感、相互利益基礎上，著眼長遠處理對華關係。亞洲多極化是世界多極化發展的先決條件。印中正逐步擺脫2020年邊界衝突帶來的複雜局面。同時，面對中國實力日益增長，印須做好應對準備，加快增強自身綜合國力。請問中方對此有何評論？」

中國大陸外交部發言人郭嘉昆則是回答：「中印作為兩大文明古國、發展中大國和新興經濟體，應聚焦發展、共謀合作。這符合兩國28億多人民的根本利益，契合地區國家和人民的共同期盼，順應全球南方卓然壯大的歷史潮流，也有利於地區乃至世界和平繁榮。雙方應認真落實習近平主席和莫迪總理喀山會晤重要共識，堅持中印『互為發展機遇、互不構成威脅』、『是合作夥伴而非競爭對手』，堅持從戰略高度和長遠角度看待和處理中印關係，推動中印關係重回健康穩定發展軌道，探索相鄰大國和睦相處、共同發展的正確道路。在國際事務中，雙方應堅持奉行和平共處五項原則，踐行真正的多邊主義，倡導平等有序的世界多極化和普惠包容的經濟全球化，為維護和促進世界和平穩定與發展繁榮作出更大貢獻。」透過記者會如此答問，北京順勢以適當規格回應蘇傑生在政府體制外重大政策發言；大國強權過招，進退有節舉止有方，確實值得吾人從中領悟其中奧妙。

但平心而論，北京方面學者專家若是僅靠閱讀蘇傑生演講中專門針對中國大陸段落，就希望理解新德里調整對華政策全貌，這才真是以管窺豹。儘管雙方目前關係轉暖，此等政策性發言嚴格說來，僅能算是類似一葉知秋之指標意涵，但西諺亦有「孤燕不成夏」(One swallow doesn't make a summer)警語。若是細讀蘇傑生演講全文，其實就可看出印度對外政策轉變，在相當程度上係因預期美國調整對外政策所致，並且毫不諱言指出北京與華盛頓實力消長與立場變化，對於印太區域確實是關鍵性因素(蘇傑生演講原文為Changes in the weight and the stance of the United States and China are among the key factors contributing to the emergence of the Indo-Pacific as a theatre.)。

北京與新德里未來關係發展，必然還是會受到華盛頓對外政策影響；儘管雙方都有意願加強互動關係，但各自內部都有反對阻力，希望藉由中國大陸與印度關係矛盾從中取利，因此在後續政治談判與協商過程中，儘管目前確實存在正面發展跡象，但還是會充滿各種變數。若希望掌握理解印度調整外交政策來龍去脈與實際全貌，閱讀蘇傑生演講全文是無法迴避必要功課！