紐時賞析／美國2024電力需求突暴增3% 減排陷入停滯

U.S. Emissions Push Stalled in '24 as Power Needs Rose

能源需求激增 美國去年減排陷停滯

America’s efforts to cut its climate change pollution stalled in 2024, with greenhouse gas emissions dropping just a fraction, 0.2%, compared with the year before, according to estimates published Thursday by the Rhodium Group, a research firm.

研究機構榮鼎集團周四發表的估計值顯示，2024年美國削減氣候變遷汙染成效陷入停滯，溫室氣體排放量和前一年相比僅下降0.2%。

Despite continued rapid growth in solar and wind power, emissions levels stayed relatively flat last year because demand for electricity surged, which led to a spike in the amount of natural gas burned by power plants.

儘管太陽能和風力發電持續快速增加，但由於電力需求激增，導致發電廠燃燒的天然氣量暴增，使去年排放量相對持平。

The fact that emissions didn’t decline much means the United States is even further off-track from hitting President Joe Biden’s goal of slashing greenhouse gases 50% below 2005 levels by 2030. Scientists say all major economies would have to cut their emissions deeply this decade to keep global warming at relatively low levels.

排放量並未大幅下降的事實，意味美國距離達成拜登總統提出的目標更加遙遠，該目標是2030年之前讓溫室氣體排放量比2005年水平下降50%。科學家說，所有主要經濟體必須在這個10年大幅減少排放量，才能讓全球暖化維持在相對較低水平。

Since 2005, United States emissions have fallen roughly 20%, while the economy has expanded. But to meet its climate goals, U.S. emissions would need to decline nearly 10 times as fast each year as they’ve fallen over the past decade. That seems increasingly unlikely, experts say, especially since President-elect Donald Trump has promised to dismantle Biden’s climate policies and promote the production of fossil fuels.

自2005年以來，美國排放量已減少約20%，同時經濟有所擴張。但為了達成其氣候目標，美國每年減少排放量的速度必須是過去10年減少速度的近10倍。專家說，這似乎愈來愈不可能實現，特別是美國候任總統川普承諾廢除拜登的氣候政策並鼓勵化石燃料生產。

“On the one hand, it is notable that we’ve now seen two years in a row where the U.S. economy grew but emissions went down,” said Ben King, an associate director at the Rhodium Group. “But it’s far from enough to achieve our climate targets.”

榮鼎集團副總監金恩表示：「另值得注意的是，我們已連續兩年見到美國經濟成長而排放量下降。但這遠不足達成我們的氣候目標。」

The biggest reason that U.S. emissions have fallen in recent years is that electric utilities have been retiring their older, dirtier coal-fired power plants and replacing them with cheaper and less-polluting natural gas, wind and solar power.

美國近年排放量下降的最大原因是，電力公司一直在汰換較老舊、汙染較多的燃煤發電廠，換成較便宜、汙染較少的天然氣、風力和太陽能發電。

The nation’s demand for electricity, which has stayed more or less flat for two decades, suddenly jumped by roughly 3% in 2024, in large part because scorching heat during the summer caused many Americans to crank up their air conditioners. A smaller factor was that tech companies have been building more energy-hungry data centers in states like Virginia and Texas.

美國的電力需求20年來幾乎持平，卻在2024年突然暴漲3%。這多半是因為夏季期間酷熱，導致許多美國人增加空調使用。另一個較小的因素是科技公司在維吉尼亞州和德州等地興建更多耗能的數據中心。

While power companies installed large numbers of wind turbines, solar panels and batteries last year to meet rising demand, natural gas use also rose to record highs, while coal use declined only slightly. The net result was that emissions from the power sector increased an estimated 0.2%, according to the Rhodium Group.

儘管電力公司去年安裝大量風力渦輪機、太陽能板和電池，以滿足需求增加，但天然氣用量也增至創紀錄新高，而煤的用量僅略為減少。榮鼎集團指出，最終結果是電力產業的排放量增加約0.2%。

文／Brad Plumer　譯／羅方妤

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