紐時賞析／聯準會持續觀望降息 與川普衝突恐難免

Fed Decision Could Lead To Collision With Trump

聯準會持續觀望降息 與川普衝突恐難免

The central bank’s resolve in the face of what has been an unrelenting pressure campaign from the president was on full display Wednesday. Policymakers held interest rates steady for a fourth straight meeting, and nearly half of them signaled in new projections less scope to cut interest rates this year in anticipation of resurgent inflation. The Fed’s benchmark interest rate is currently in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.

美國聯準會面對總統川普不斷施壓，周三充分展現堅定的立場。政策制定者連續第四次會議維持利率不變，他們近半數在最新預測中暗示，由於預期通貨膨脹率再次上升，今年降息空間減少。聯準會基準利率目前處於4.25%至4.5%間。

Powell was also unwavering in his message that the Fed can afford to take its time on interest rate cuts and will stick to a “wait-and-see” approach until officials have more clarity about how Trump’s policies are affecting the economy.

聯準會主席鮑爾傳達訊息時也堅定不移，稱聯準會有時間可以慢慢降息，並將堅持「觀望」態度，直到官員們更清楚川普政策會如何影響經濟。

That could take months, keeping the White House and the Fed on a collision course that economists say stems directly from Trump’s policies, including his global trade war.

這可能需要數月時間，也使白宮和聯準會陷入衝突。經濟學家稱，這直接源於川普政策，包括他的全球貿易戰。

“They want to wait at this point because they’re caught between a rock and a hard place with tariffs,” said Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo. “It’s a supply shock. It’s going to simultaneously raise inflation while raising the unemployment rate.”

美國富國銀行首席經濟學家布萊森表示：「他們目前想要等待，因為他們在關稅問題上處於進退兩難的局面。這是個供應衝擊，會同時通膨和失業率。」

Neither of those things have happened yet, putting the Fed in an awkward position as it stands pat in anticipation of an economic shift that has not yet materialized. Price pressures have stayed surprisingly muted and the labor market, while softer, is still on relatively solid footing.

這兩個狀況都尚未發生，讓聯準會處境尷尬，他們保持現狀，而預期的經濟轉變尚未實現。物價壓力出奇地平穩，勞工市場儘管比較疲軟但仍相對穩固。

For Trump, there appears to be no barriers for the Fed to lower interest rates, as other central banks around the world have done. On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank slashed borrowing costs to zero. But for the Fed, it is just a matter of time before inflation starts creeping back up even as growth takes a hit, making it imprudent for it to take action right now.

對川普而言，似乎沒有任何障礙阻止聯準會降息，世界各地其他中央銀行都降息了。在周四，瑞士國家銀行將借貸成本減少至0。但對聯準會而言，即使經濟成長受到打擊，通膨遲早會悄悄回升，因此現在採取行動並不明智。

“The Fed has sought refuge in data dependence amid a whirlwind of shifting trade, tax, immigration and regulatory policies. But the longer it keeps the Fed funds rate unchanged, the more political pressure is likely to build,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist for the consulting firm EY-Parthenon.

諮詢機構安永–帕特儂首席經濟學家達科表示：「貿易、稅收、移民和監管政策飛快變化之際，聯準會尋求數據做為避風港。但聯準會保持基金利率不變時間愈長，政治壓力就可能愈大。」

Trump has maintained that rate cuts are essential for the country’s future finances, since the actions of the Fed influence the amount that the government must spend to issue and service its debts through the sale of bonds.

川普堅持，降息對美國未來的財政至關重要，因為聯準會的行動會影響政府透過出售債券和償還債務所必須支付的金額。

文／Colby Smith and Tony Romm　譯／羅方妤