紐時賞析／不只大都市受影響 AI如何重塑美國的人口和勞力市場版圖？

How AI Could Reshape the Economic Geography of America

AI如何重塑美國的經濟地理

Chattanooga, Tennessee, a midsize Southern city, is on no one’s list of artificial intelligence hot spots.

田納西州的查塔努加是一座中等規模的南方城市，不在任何人的人工智慧熱點名單上。

But as the technology’s use moves beyond a few big city hubs and is more widely adopted across the economy, Chattanooga and other once-struggling cities in the Midwest, mid-Atlantic and South are poised to be among the unlikely winners, a recent study found.

但最近一項研究發現，隨著這項技術的使用超出幾個大城市樞紐，在整個經濟體系獲得更廣泛採用，查塔努加與其他中西部、中大西洋與南方一些曾陷入困境的城市，將成為不可能的贏家。

The shared attributes of these metropolitan areas include an educated workforce, affordable housing and workers who are mostly in occupations and industries less likely to be replaced or disrupted by AI, according to the study by two labor economists, Scott Abrahams, an assistant professor at Louisiana State University, and Frank Levy, a professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. These cities are well positioned to use AI to become more productive, helping to draw more people to those areas.

根據路易斯安那州立大學助理教授亞伯拉罕斯與麻省理工學院名譽教授李維兩位勞動經濟學家的研究，這些都會地區的共同屬性包括受過教育的勞動力與合宜住宅，勞工大多從事不太可能被AI取代或顛覆的職業和產業。這些城市非常適合運用AI變得更有生產力，有助吸引更多人到這些地區。

The study is part of a growing body of research pointing to the potential for chatbot-style AI to fuel a reshaping of the population and labor market map of America. AI’s transformative force could change the nation’s economy and politics, much like other technological revolutions.

這項研究是越來越多研究成果的一部分，指向聊天機器人式AI有潛力推動重塑美國人口和勞動力市場版圖。就像其他技術革命一樣，AI的變革力量可能改變美國的經濟和政治。

“This is a powerful technology that will sweep through American offices with potentially very significant geographic implications,” said Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, where he studies the regional effects of technology and government policy.

在布魯金斯研究院研究技術和政府政策區域影響的資深研究員穆羅說，「這是一項強大的技術，將橫掃美國各個辦公室，可能帶來非常重大的地理影響」。

At issue is a new and rapidly growing breed of the technology known as generative AI, which can quickly draft business reports, write software and answer questions, often with human-level skill. Already, predictions abound that generative AI will displace workers in call centers, software developers and business analysts.

最關鍵的是一種新興且快速發展的技術類型，名為生成式AI，可以快速草擬業務報告、編寫軟體和回答問題，通常具有人類水平的技能。已有大量預測指出，生成式AI將取代電話服務中心工作人員、軟體開發人員和業務分析師。

A series of studies have concluded that the impact is likely to be substantial, perhaps automating the equivalent of millions of jobs.

一系列的研究認為，影響可能很重大，或許相當於數百萬個工作自動化。

To date, the regions benefiting the most from the rapidly progressing technology have been a handful of metro areas where scientists are building AI, including Silicon Valley.

到目前為止，從這項正在迅速發展技術受益最多的地區，是科學家正在建構AI的少數都會區，包括矽谷。

But those places are also some of the ones most apt to face issues as AI gets better and can automate jobs, according to the labor economists’ study.

但根據這兩位勞動經濟學家的研究，隨著AI變得更好以及可讓工作自動化，那些地方也是最容易面臨問題的地方。

文／Steve Lohr　譯／周辰陽